fa اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رشد و عملکرد دانه کلزا (.Brassica napus L. در دشت دهگلان استان ‌کردستان با استفاده از برنامه DSSAT تخصصي Special پژوهشي Scientific & Research <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:17.0pt"><span style="direction:rtl"><span style="unicode-bidi:embed"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">مدل‌های شبیه‌سازی رشد و نمو گیاهی یکی از پیشرفته‌ترین ابزارهایی است که امروزه به‌منظور برآورد عملکرد و بهینه کـردن عملیـات</span></span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">زراعی استفاده می‌شوند. به‌منظور ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رشد و عملکرد دانه کلزا در دشت دهگلان استان کردستان از مدل </span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">CSM-CROPGRO-Canola</span></span></span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt"> برای شبیه‌سازی پاسخ گیاه به تغییرات آب و هوایی در سه سناریو (</span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">RCP2.6</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">،</span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">RCP4.6 </span></span></span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">&nbsp;و </span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">RCP8.5</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">) در چهار دوره زمانی 2040-2021، 2060-2041، 2080-2061 و 2100-2081 در برنامه </span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">DSSAT</span></span></span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt"> استفاده شد. به‌منظور واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی مدل از آزمایشات مزرعه&shy;ای انجام شده در سال&shy;های زراعی 97-1396 و 98-1397 استفاده شد. نتایج اعتبار سنجی مدل آب و هوایی و گیاهی بر اساس شاخص&shy;های ارزیابی</span></span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">مدل نشان داد که مدل دارای دقت کافی برای شبیه&shy;سازی متغیرهای اقلیمی و خصوصیات رشدی گیاه کلزا بود. نتایج شبیه&shy;سازی نشان داد که خصوصیات رشدی گیاه کلزا تحت تاثیر اثر منفی تغییر اقلیم در هر سه سناریو در دوره&shy;های زمانی مختلف قرار گرفت، به</span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">‌</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">طوریکه صفات شاخص سطح برگ، عملکرد زیستی، شاخص برداشت و عملکرد دانه در سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم نسبت به سال زراعی مبنا (98-1397) کاهش نشان دادند. کمترین و بیشترین کاهش عملکرد دانه نسبت به عملکرد سال پایه (5309 کیلوگرم در هکتار) به ترتیب در سناریوی </span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">RCP2.6</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt"> در دوره زمانی 2040-2021 (5293 کیلوگرم در هکتار) با 0/3- درصد و سناریوی </span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">RCP8.5</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt"> در دوره زمانی 2100-2081 (3313 کیلوگرم در هکتار) با 58/37- درصد مشاهده شد. ارزیابی مقادیر مشاهده شده و پیش بینی شده عملکرد دانه، عملکرد زیستی، شاخص برداشت و حداکثر شاخص سطح برگ بر اساس شاخص</span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt"> RMSE%</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt"> به‌ترتیب 11/8، 10/12، 8/64و 13/3بود. نتایج نشان داد که بیشترین اثر منفی تغییر اقلیم بر گیاه کلزا در سناریوی </span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">RCP8.5</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt"> و کمترین اثر منفی در سناریوی </span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">RCP2.6</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt"> بوده و با گذشت زمان اثر منفی تغییر اقلیم، به‌ویژه در سناریوی </span></span></span></b><b><span dir="LTR" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span bold="" new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">RCP8.5</span></span></span></b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt"> تشدید یافت. بر اساس نتایج این تحقیق به‌منظور کاهش اثر منفی تغییر اقلیم در آینده، راهکارهایی مانند بهبود عملیات به‌زراعی، به‌نژادی‌، کارایی مصرف آب و نیتروژن</span></span></span></b><b> </b><b><span lang="FA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span b="" style="font-family:" zar=""><span style="letter-spacing:-.1pt">برای تولید کلزا در شرایط تغییر اقلیم ضروری است. </span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <br> &nbsp; <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:15.0pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Introduction:</span></span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> The crisis of water sources limitation has signified the necessity of irrigation management of canola crop unavoidable. This issue is especially critical in the context of climate change, which is accompanied by changes in precipitation amount and patterns as well astemperature flucatations. The time-consuming and costly nature of field research and the spatial and temporal dependence of the results have caused crop growth modelling to be considered as an effective and acceptable technique in decision support systems</span></span> <span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">under climate change conditions. In this regard, the DSSAT program is one of the most successful programs available for simulating the growth and development of crops. In this study simulation program for plant growth and development was used to predict growth and seed yield of canola in Dehgolan in Kurdistan province of Iran.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:15.0pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Materials and Methods:</span></span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> This study consisted of two phases; field and simulation studies. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to simulate climate data and forecast climate changes in the future. For the future climate, the set of CanESM scenarios including; RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, presented by the Canadian Earth System Modeling Center, were used. Then, the changes in the growth and yield of canola under the mentioned scenarios were studied in the four periods of 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100 using the CSM-CROPGRO-Canola model in the DSSAT program. In field studies, two field experiments were carried out to calibrate and validate the output of the model in the research farm of the Kurdistan University in Dehgolan 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 cropping seasons. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:15.0pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Results</span></span></b><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">:</span></span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> The results of validation for weather and growth models showed that the models had sufficient accuracy to simulate climate variables and also the growth of canola. The simulation results illustrated that the growth characteristics of canola were affected by the negative effects of climate change under all scenarios and different time periods, therefore, the plant traits in various climate change scenarios were low when compared to the baseline cropping season (2018-2019). In general, the results of the model showed that the maximum negative effects of climate change on canola growth was in the RCP8.5 scenario and the minimum in the RCP2.6 scenario. The adverse effects of climate change were accelerated by time, especially in the RCP8.5 scenario. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:15.0pt"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Conclusion:</span></span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> The results of this study showed that the future climate change will have a negative effect on the growth and yield of canola that depends on the scenario and time period, the seed yield will decrease from 0.3% to 37.58% as compared with the current conditions. Therefore, to mitigate climate change impact on agricultural ecosystems necessary management measures including development of suitable canola cultivars and agronomic mangament package should be taken into consideration for adaptation to the changing climate in future.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br> <br> &nbsp; تغییر اقلیم, شبیه‌سازی, ضرایب ژنتیکی, کلزا و مدل‌سازی Canola, Climate change, Genetic coefficients, Modelling and Simulation 101 118 http://agrobreedjournal.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-224-2&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 Behroz Dolatparast بهروز دولت پرست b.dolatparast@uok.ac.ir 10031947532846009602 10031947532846009602 No University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran دانشگاه کردستان Farzad Hosseinpanahi فرزاد حسین پناهی f.hosseinpanahi@uok.ac.ir 10031947532846009603 10031947532846009603 Yes University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran دانشگاه کردستان Hamed Mansouri حامد منصوری h.mansory@gmail.com 10031947532846009604 10031947532846009604 No Sugar Beet Research Department, Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center of Hamedan, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Hamedan, Iran مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان همدان Adel Siosemardeh عادل سی و سه مرده a33@uok.ac.ir 10031947532846009605 10031947532846009605 No University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran دانشگاه کردستان